The inaugural ICBW podcast of 2021 is now posted. Part 1 covers the kerfuffle at the Capitol, part 2 reviews the blog's annual predictions, and part 3 finishes the predictions review and revisits the Section 230 debate in light of recent political purges on social media. Listening--and then commenting here--would be the perfect way to get the fresh new year off to a good start...
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Friday, January 01, 2021
2020 having been a most unusual year, this will of course be a most unusual end-of-year predictions post. Needless to say, our predictions this time around require a huge asterisk: by December 31st, 2019, this blog had completely failed to predict a massive global pandemic in 2020. Readers can judge this lack of prescience as they see fit.
Notwithstanding this major (if utterly
unsurprising) failure, though, the rest of the predictions don’t hold up too
badly:
- As
mentioned in the podcast, Joe Biden will win the Democratic party
nomination, and be elected president. (Bonus "alternative
reality" prediction: if Biden somehow fails to win the
nomination, then Trump will be re-elected.)
Not only was the real-world prediction
correct, but the closeness of the election suggests strongly that the
hypothetical one would have been, as well.
- Following
another election in which Likud weakens slightly but not enough for the
opposition Blue-and-White party to forge its own coalition government,
Likud and Blue-and-White will strike a deal on a unity government, with
the leaders sharing prime ministerial duties. In Britain, Brexit
will go through under the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson (with perhaps a
few minor amendments), with no major economic consequences for Britain in
2020.
These predictions were also dead-on, although
admittedly both were widely considered fairly likely at the beginning of the
year.
- The
continuation of the Trump administration's absurdly expansionary economic
policies will stave off an economic downturn through 2020 (at a likely
serious cost in 2021, of course). Equity markets will rise modestly,
amid high volatility, and interest rates will finally be forced upwards,
but only slightly, towards the end of the year. Oil and real estate
prices will follow a similar pattern.
Putting aside the failure to predict the
COVID-related economic downturn, the stock market prediction actually fared
well. Interest rates, on the other hand,
fell sharply in response to the pandemic, as did oil and real estate prices
(although the latter were stable for most of the year, and home prices actually
increased—offset, of course, by the decline in commercial real estate due to
the pandemic proving the viability of office-less office work.)
- The
civil unrest in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran will unfortunately be ruthlessly
crushed, and will have completely disappeared by the end of 2020, with no
significant interference by American forces (which will have quietly and
all-but-completely withdrawn from Iraq, under Iranian pressure, by
mid-year). The strain of dealing with this unrest will however
impede the Iranian regime from significant aggressive moves beyond this
consolidation of power. For example, as mentioned in the podcast,
Afghanistan will not fall to the Taliban in 2020, although the latter will
make significant progress following the reduction in US support for the
ruling government.
This prediction got at least the directions
correct, if not the magnitudes. The
number of US troops in Iraq, for example, was reduced in September to about
half of its pre-2020 level. And Iran has indeed spent 2020
consolidating its power rather than expanding it aggressively.
- Hong
Kong will likewise be fully pacified at some point in 2020, and attention
towards China will shift away from human rights issues in both Hong Kong
and Xinjiang, and towards the increasingly dire state of the Chinese
economy.
The first part of the prediction was correct,
but the pandemic played havoc with the second part, as China’s ruthless and
dishonest handling of its own (and the world’s) COVID crisis intensified
attention on its totalitarianism, and the pandemic’s devastating effect on the
global economy obscured China’s specific economic problems.
- Conditions
in Mexico will continue to deteriorate, with criminal organizations
scoring even more spectacular victories against government forces, and
more Americans getting caught in the crossfire. Crime in the US
will also spike significantly, as soft-on-crime policies spread across
more and more jurisdictions, driven by a strange-bedfellows coalition of
radical leftists and libertarians. Anti-Semitic attacks in the New
York City area will continue to occur at a high rate, for example, as will
incidents of homelessness-related disorder in West Coast cities.
The prediction about Mexico was, like many
others, overshadowed by the pandemic—while crime rose slightly, less
American travel to Mexico reduced the number of American victims. The prediction of rising crime in the US,
however, was quite accurate, and no doubt enhanced by the strengthening of
the anti-police movement over the summer.
- In
the US, there will be much attention given to the decline of non-online
retail shopping, as "dead malls" and decaying downtowns prompt
pundits to ponder this decline's dire consequences for society and propose
solutions to the problem--mostly involving boycotting online retailers and
pumping money into local ones.
This was a rare instance of a prediction
accidentally made more accurate by
the pandemic, as COVID-related lockdowns further decimated the brick-and-mortar
retail sector and boosted its online counterpart.
Now for our predictions for 2021:
- The vaccine-induced
abatement of the COVID epidemic in the US and other Western countries will
release a great deal of pent-up demand, gradually heating up the economy
throughout the year. Stock indices will
again rise slightly from their already overinflated highs, oil and real estate
prices will rebound, and interest rates will begin to creep upward towards the
end of the year.
- Polls notwithstanding,
Republicans will win both Georgia Senate seats in the January runoff, leaving
Congress deadlocked with a barely-Democratic House and a barely-Republican
Senate. Hence, as in the last couple of
administrations, the US government’s direction will be set by the presidency,
rather than by Congress.
- The Biden administration
will use its executive powers to reinstate some of the Obama administration
initiatives rolled back by Trump, such as renewed negotiations with Iran,
looser immigration enforcement, and requirements for universities to impose a
presumption of guilt on students accused of sexual misconduct. However, it’ll stop short of a full reinstatement
of the status quo ante: neither the
JCPOA (“Iran deal”), nor DACA (legalization of “dreamers”), nor the Obama
administration’s “dear colleague” letter to Universities (threatening them with
punishment for insufficient zeal in presuming the accused guilty in sexual
misconduct cases) will be fully restored. In other respects as well, such as policing and racial policy, the new administration will pursue a moderate liberal course, rather than a progressive one. As a result, many journalists and (other) leftist activists will cast Biden
and his administration as centrist and even quasi-Republican, and will attack
it relentlessly. Stories that have so
far been taboo, like the Biden family’s corruption and Biden’s own fading
mental acuity, will gradually be taken up by leftists, much as Bill Clinton’s
early-administration scandals were pushed primarily by leftist journalists. Biden will thus end the year with very weak
public approval numbers.
- Partly in response to
such stories, US policy towards China will resemble Russia policy under
Trump: extremely self-contradictory,
with alternating messages of friendship and hostility. The Biden administration will resist imposing
sanctions and trade restrictions, but will maintain or strengthen mutual
defense arrangements with China’s near neighbors, and occasionally remark on
human rights issues (without taking significant action).
- The upcoming election
will finally evict Benjamin Netanyahu from office in Israel, with Gideon
Sa’ar’s new party ultimately making possible a ruling coalition that includes
Likud but is not dominated by it. As a
result, the prosecution of Netanyahu on corruption charges will be allowed to
proceed, but it will not result in a conviction by the end of 2021.
- At least one of the
following elderly and/or rumored-ill international leaders will be said to have
had a (possibly secretly) life-threatening medical episode during 2021: Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin (rumored to suffer
from Parkinson’s disease), Ayatollah Khamenei, Raoul Castro, Queen Elizabeth
II.
- US university enrollments will continue to decline in 2021—COVID-related deferments in 2020 notwithstanding—and several small colleges will announce plans to close down completely. (Furthermore, any Biden administration program to reduce the cost of Community College enrollment will largely cannibalize university enrollment.) Similarly, the exodus of businesses and employees from expensive downtowns such as New York and San Francisco, jump-started by the move to remote work during the pandemic, will continue in 2021. And movie theaters will close in large numbers, in response to a very anemic post-pandemic audience recovery. (Bars and restaurants, on the other hand, will experience a much larger surge in returning customers, and those that survived the pandemic will prosper, with many new ones opening to meet the demand.)
Monday, December 14, 2020
The even-more-spectacular 4-part final ICBW podcast of 2020 is now available for our listeners to (attempt to) enjoy. Part 1 discusses COVID hypocrites in government; part 2 delves into election integrity, this year and beyond; part 3 explores recent political efforts to dismantle local criminal justice systems, and the motivations behind them; and part 4 explains the famous "Section 230" and its relationship to social media. As always, we encourage listeners to leave comments here to respond to our arguments, or merely to let us know they exist...
Tuesday, November 10, 2020
The spectacular new 4-part post-election ICBW podcast is now available, and it's jam-packed with thoughtful and provocative conversation. Part 1 briefly covers the election fraud issue, part 2 discusses the likely character of the Biden administration, part 3 is a meditation on the general nature of political power, and part 4 reaches back for a look at the affair of Hunter Biden's laptop. As always, listeners are plaintively urged to respond via comments, if only to prove that they exist...
Sunday, October 11, 2020
The October edition of the ICBW podcast is now available for listening. In part 1, we discuss the latest on the COVID-19 pandemic and the presidential debate; part 2 covers the recent rise in enthusiasm for censorship in certain quarters, and part 3 discusses Antifa and other anti-democratic movements, and how to deal with them. Last chance to listen (and comment) before the election!
Sunday, September 13, 2020
The Labor Day edition of the ICBW podcast is now available. In part 1, we discuss recent urban unrest, in part 2 we debate the sincerity of public figures' professed political positions, and in part 3 we speculate on the mental condition of this year's presidential candidates. As always, listeners are encouraged to respond to our discussion by adding comments to this post, rather than by, say, rioting or looting.
Saturday, August 08, 2020
The August edition of the ICBW podcast is now posted. Part 1 covers the Beirut explosion and voting security issues raised by mail-in ballots, discussion of which continues in part 2. In part 3 we discuss the Orwellian--or perhaps not-so-Orwellian--semantic games recently infecting the discourse (including the constant introduction of ill-defined terms such as "the discourse" into the discourse). As always, listeners are invited to post responses in the form of comments on this post, which, unlike most podcasters, we in fact actually read...
Sunday, July 12, 2020
Saturday, June 06, 2020
Thursday, May 07, 2020
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
The reason so many people are so baffled by these choices, in my opinion, is that we lack clear information on the effects of various restrictive countermeasures. Suppose we require everyone in a particular location or pursuing a particular activity to wear some kind of cloth mask. How much would that cut down on the spread of COVID-19? What about requiring 6 feet of space between people? 12 feet? 6 feet plus a mask? Does it matter whether it's indoors or outdoors? As far as I know, we simply don't yet have good, quantitative answers to these questions, and until we do, we can't really determine what policy to impose on activities that involve interactions among people from different households. (That's why most locales have been resorting to the one big hammer they know works: fairly complete lockdown.)
Our first priority, therefore, should be to gather the data necessary to answer these questions as quickly and accurately as possible. Once we have the answers, the issue of "essential" vs. "non-essential" activities will likely disappear. Instead, we will be able to ask the question, "what set of restrictions makes a particular activity--whether essential or non-essential--under a particular set of circumstances acceptably low-risk for infection? For example, shopping--whether for essential groceries or non-essential fashion apparel--is presumably reasonably safe under the right set of conditions, and once we have determined those conditions, we should apply them equally to all retail environments. The same can be said of other activities, whether recreational, commercial, social or political. (It's of course possible that for some previously popular activities, a reasonably safe set of conditions simply doesn't exist. But one hopes that that set of activities is fairly small.)
Perhaps more importantly, approaching the issue in these terms is likely to mitigate a lot of the raucous political and social conflict surrounding it. Right now, discussions about how and when to "open up" are dominated by loud, belligerent and largely ignorant voices, because more reasonable ones have little in the way of concrete proposals or supporting evidence to back them up. Armed with a set of specific, transparent and scientifically supported policies, though--rather than a pair of vague, broad options--the reasonable voices might actually have a fighting chance.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
- The US economy will slow markedly starting in early-to-mid 2019, though not into recession territory. The stock markets will continue to decline throughout the year, rallying late but not by enough to prevent an overall negative year. Real estate prices will also continue their decline, but oil prices will rebound modestly from their recent lows.
- President Trump's approval ratings will continue their stable modestly-underwater trend throughout 2019. There will continue to be multiple non-stop investigations--this time including Congressional ones--of the president's activities, but they will result in no immediate legal jeopardy to the president himself, nor will he be impeached by the House of Representatives. Numerous White House staffers and cabinet members will be investigated and prosecuted, however--including by politically ambitious state prosecutors unconnected with Congressional or Department of Justice investigations.
- The frontrunners for the Democratic Party presidential nomination at the end of the year will be the most viable candidates from the party's "mainstream" (read: minority) and "progressive" (read: upper-class/would-be upper-class) wings. Kamala Harris and Kirstin Gillibrand are the current favorites for these respective roles.
- In Europe, "Hard Brexit"--without a negotiated deal--will come to pass, with far milder consequences than opponents are predicting. As a result, British PM Theresa May will survive in office through 2019--partly out of Tory fear of the electorate, and partly out of the inability of her divided party (mirroring the pre-Trump US GOP's business/blue-collar split) to coalesce around an acceptable alternative. Meanwhile, the EU will calm its many internal rebellions by acquiescing to greater immigration restrictions across the union.
- Justin Trudeau will win a comfortable majority in the coming Canadian federal election. (Canadians usually re-elect their prime ministers at least once if they don't completely screw up on the job.) Likewise, Benjamin Netanyahu will win re-election and remain in office through 2019, although a corruption indictment will be delivered against him, and its resulting legal process will drag on through the year, hanging over his political career without actually ending it.
- The combination of US withdrawal from Syria and increased Turkish intervention there to suppress the Syrian Kurds' territorial ambitions will turn the Syrian conflict into a Turkish-Iranian one, with the two would-be hegemons unable to work out an acceptable partition of the now-recolonized country. Russia will recapitulate its historic rivalry with Turkey by siding with Iran, and the US will thus be pushed by its NATO commitments and geopolitical interests into siding with Turkey, despite the many tension-generating issues dividing the two countries (which may in turn be assuaged somewhat by this partnership). Meanwhile, the US will reduce, if not eliminate, its involvement in Afghanistan, and refocus its energies on other geopolitical threats, such as China.
- Louis CK's comeback will spark a minor explosion of politically incorrect comedy, as stand-up comedians escalate from complaining about politically driven constraints on their material to actively rebelling against them. The change will mark a tipping point in cultural acceptance of leftist censorship, since comics are by nature conformist barometers of consensus opinion, rather than the daring vanguards of forbidden ideas they are often portrayed as being. (Laughter, as I've explained in the past, is a product of comfort and reassurance--often following surprise and/or discomfort--and comics must therefore provide reassurance in their punchlines to succeed. They do so, in most cases, by catering to audiences' consensus beliefs and prejudices. Thus if comics feel confident in mocking and flouting the rules of political correctness, then rejection of those rules must have achieved a high threshold level of consensus among comedy audiences.)
- As mentioned in the podcast, Joe Biden will win the Democratic party nomination, and be elected president. (Bonus "alternative reality" prediction: if Biden somehow fails to win the nomination, then Trump will be re-elected.)
- Following another election in which Likud weakens slightly but not enough for the opposition Blue-and-White party to forge its own coalition government, Likud and Blue-and-White will strike a deal on a unity government, with the leaders sharing prime ministerial duties. In Britain, Brexit will go through under the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson (with perhaps a few minor amendments), with no major economic consequences for Britain in 2020.
- The continuation of the Trump administration's absurdly expansionary economic policies will stave off an economic downturn through 2020 (at a likely serious cost in 2021, of course). Equity markets will rise modestly, amid high volatility, and interest rates will finally be forced upwards, but only slightly, towards the end of the year. Oil and real estate prices will follow a similar pattern.
- The civil unrest in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran will unfortunately be ruthlessly crushed, and will have completely disappeared by the end of 2020, with no significant interference by American forces (which will have quietly and all-but-completely withdrawn from Iraq, under Iranian pressure, by mid-year). The strain of dealing with this unrest will however impede the Iranian regime from significant aggressive moves beyond this consolidation of power. For example, as mentioned in the podcast, Afghanistan will not fall to the Taliban in 2020, although the latter will make significant progress following the reduction in US support for the ruling government.
- Hong Kong will likewise be fully pacified at some point in 2020, and attention towards China will shift away from human rights issues in both Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and towards the increasingly dire state of the Chinese economy.
- Conditions in Mexico will continue to deteriorate, with criminal organizations scoring even more spectacular victories against government forces, and more Americans getting caught in the crossfire. Crime in the US will also spike significantly, as soft-on-crime policies spread across more and more jurisdictions, driven by a strange-bedfellows coalition of radical leftists and libertarians. Anti-Semitic attacks in the New York City area will continue to occur at a high rate, for example, as will incidents of homelessness-related disorder in West Coast cities.
- In the US, there will be much attention given to the decline of non-online retail shopping, as "dead malls" and decaying downtowns prompt pundits to ponder this decline's dire consequences for society and propose solutions to the problem--mostly involving boycotting online retailers and pumping money into local ones.